NVinNYC

Woah! ThinkSecret is now suggesting that the “One More Thing?” will be a video iPod. That sounds awesome, but the downside is that they suggest capacities will remain at 30GB & 60GB (a 10GB bump for the low end model) instead of being bumped to 40GB & 80GB. They also mention that the magnitude of the video iPod announcement may push the release of updated PowerBooks and PowerMacs to next week.

I’ll be a little disappointed if the maximum iPod capacity is not changed for two reasons. First of all, I’m averaging adding about 20GB of music to my library every two years while I’m currently nearly filled up my 40GB iPod solely with music. So this means I would have a 60GB full in another 2 years. This may not be a huge deal (just get a new iPod then right?) until you take the second my second concert into account. The more important issue here for me and everyone else is that video takes a heck of a lot more space than audio. In fact, my movies album in my iPhoto library currently is about 10GB for 311 items (mostly trailers and music videos). This doesn’t include any full length movies, which can easily be around 700MB when ripped and heavily compressed from a DVD. Considering this, I think I could easily fill up a 60GB iPod with compressed videos alone. My point here is that, while very few people, including myself, have more that 60GB of music; lots of people have more than 60GB of videos and music in their digital collection.

Here’s an update on my earlier post for the Apple event on Wednesday.

Since I last posted, ThinkSecret has released a new article claiming that Apple will debut “two new iPods, each available in two colors” at the event. The colors are expected to be similar to the iPod nano: black and white. This is a slight amendment to their previous stance, which was that Apple would not deliver a video iPod at the event but instead use it to launch new PowerBooks and PowerMacs.

Meanwhile, AppleInsider has posted quotes from several analysts stating that they expect a video iPod to be released at the event. They also mention the likelihood of new PowerMac and PowerBook models.

AppleInsider also mentions the possible introduction of a Madonna branded iPod in pink, while ThinkSecret mentions this but says it is unconfirmed. Neither site provides details about the technical specifications of the new Macs.

My take is that, as mentioned in my earlier post, the event will usher in both new PowerMacs, PowerBooks, and hard-drive based iPods. However, I’m leaning towards ThinkSecret’s opinion in that I doubt the iPods will have full fledged video capabilities. In fact, it seems more likely that they will share the form factor with the current generation of iPods, leaving the only differences in price and/or storage size. The general consensus from both sites is that the current models will stay at current prices of $299 & $399 but see their storage bumped from 20GB & 60GB to 40GB & 80GB thanks to new perpendicular recording mechanisms. This sounds just right for to me. Apple loves their current pricing scheme because it places an iPod every $50 or so. This makes it tempting for those who need more space or want additional features to spend more, as well as making sure that some type of iPod is available for a variety of different budgets.

So ThinkSecret is reporting that the “One More Thing…” event will usher in updated PowerBooks & PowerMacs. This seems to contradict a report by AppleInsider that a new video iPod may be introduced as early as next week. So let’s break down each site’s report.

AppleInsider’s report, which was published first, simply makes the claim that Apple has a 5th generation iPod with video capabilities in production and will be introducing it soon. They don’t specifically claim it will be introduced at the event next Tuesday Wednesday and they don’t make any claims about the introduction of updated PowerBooks & PowerMacs.

ThinkSecret on, the other hand, goes on the record to expressly state:

The event… will not usher in the much rumored video iPod but rather new PowerBook and PowerMac systems.

Furthermore, they argue that Apple won’t be introducing an updated regular iPod to avoid diverting attetion from the iPod nano as their main holiday item.

So while there is a bit of difference in the proposed expectations, it would seem that AppleInsider is covered even if no new iPods emerge Tuesday Wednesday. However they do state:

Apple Computer has begun production of a new version of its iPod digital music player.

Which would indicate that the new iPod is due to be released sometime before the real holiday shopping season starts in November. It wouldn’t make much sense for Apple to be producing them now if they weren’t planning to sell them until next year.

My take on the situation is that both AppleInsider and ThinkSecret are correct to some degree. First, let me point out that betting against ThinkSecret is a loosing proposition, they have an alarmingly high accuracy rate. However, this is not to say they don’t make mistakes from time to time (see iPod mini stripes). Additionally, updated PowerBook & PowerMac lineups are sorely needed and a bit overdue, so ThinkSecret is probably right that the event will usher in those bumps.

The problem that I see with this proposition is that it seems a bit minor to send out press invitations if you’re just going to bump the specs of your pro machine lineup. It hardly seems fitting to market this kind of announcement as Steve’s favorite “One more thing…” because a speed bump is something that usually just results in a press release (or nothing at all in the case of the recent Mac mini bump). Even if the new machines have dual core processors, which seems likely, at least for the PowerMac, it would still seem that it would result in the impact of “One more thing…” being a bit devalued. Additionally, it’s out of scale with events of this nature in the past which Apple has used to introduce the original iMac, the first iPod, and, more recently last year, the iPod photo and iPod U2 Special Edition.

Right now Apple’s trump card is the iPod (and to a lesser extent iTunes), whether you like it or not (I’m still on the fence). Running with the idea that the announcement is iPod related; Apple’s recently introduced nano and iTunes 5, leave only the the shuffle or the regular iPod left for an update. While the shuffle can no longer be considered new in light of the nano, it doesn’t really have a lot of room to go. Apple can’t bump it’s size or add a screen without running into nano territory. This leaves price drops, which, while feasible, are again hardly “One more thing…” scale. So this leaves the regular iPod. An update here, especially one that added video capabilities, would certainly be “One more thing…” worthy. Furthermore, the regular iPod (a.k.a. iPod photo or iPod with color screen) is due for an update as it hasn’t seen any updates (only price drops) since it was introduced as iPod photo was introduced for the holiday shopping season last year.

All of this leads me to believe that an updated iPod is indeed Steve’s “One more thing…” that will be unveiled next week. Ideally, Steve will unveil updated PowerBooks and PowerMacs to warm the crowd up and drop the iPod for the “One more thing…”.

The other possibility, which I would consider an outside chance, is the introduction of an entirely new device that is music and/or movie related. The movie angle is important because, with all certainty, Apple aims to spool their dominance in the music market into a similar position in the movie market. The only real question here is a when, not an if. The invitation to the event next Tuesday Wednesday also lends credence to the movie angle as it has a red curtain background. AppleInsider proposed an “AirPort Express-like product” that is capable outputting video to an external display. The catch here is that such a device would likely be paired with a video iPod so it’s unlikely we’ll see this without a video iPod. Nevertheless, I’m leaving the left field angle open. Apple has surprised in the past despite the best efforts of ThinkSecret and AppleInsider and they could do it again.

*Sigh* It’s so long until next Tuesday Wednesday.

Update: I mistakenly reported the event was on Tuesday, when it is, in fact, on Wednesday, October 12th.

Oh shit! There’s one more thing! Could it be the video iPod? In any case, my credit card is on standby.

So NYC’s MTA is trying to shut down iPodSubwayMaps.com from putting up specially maps formated for the iPod (or offering to sell them a map license for $500 a year). I mean it’s a great service for people to help find their way around and it’s not like it’s costing MTA a dime. On the other hand, DC’s WMATA just gave the iPod Subway Maps permission to use their map for free. That rocks. Hey MTA, let’s start turning things around here or pretty soon you’ll be so backward no one will want to ride anymore. (Via TUAW.)