Update: Now with correct-o-meter.

The Yes

• New Small Form Factor Notebook: external optical drive, regular (non-flash) hard drive (though it may use flash memory on the motherboard to cache the hard drive & improve speed/battery life). Correct.
• iTunes Movie Rentals: DRMed? Very. HD? Maybe a few titles. Correct (number of HD titles remains to be seen).
• Managed iTunes DRM Movies on DVDs: Although few discs will have this feature. Correct, it slipped through the Keynote cracks though.  Unfortunately only on select Fox discs (what, no Disney?), see details here.
• Time Machine Supports Wireless Backup: Expect to hear lots about Time Machine during the keynote, but I wouldn’t expect new hardware. Correct, but wrong about new hardware (Apple couldn’t help themselves with Time Capsule).
• AppleTV Upgrade: Software only (no new hardware). Correct, free update for existing users, cheaper entry price.
• iPhone 16 GB: Easy yes. Wrong, look for this in a February Media Event with the iPhone Dev Kit release.
• Mac OS 10.5.2, iTunes 7.6, & iPhone 1.1.3: With demos (especially for iPhone), see above for reasons. Correct.

The No

• iPhone 3G: See you in Q3 (AT&T doesn’t have the HSPDA backbone for this yet). Correct.
• New Cinema Displays: Still in the pipe. WWDC perhaps. Apple wouldn’t have dropped the new Mac Pro models last week without them. Correct.
• More DRM Free Labels: Not the big ones. They want to leverage that power to Amazon. The indies are all in though. Correct.
• Tablets or Newtons: If it’s not an iPhone or iPod touch, you wont hear a peep. Correct.
• iPhone SDK Demo or Details: Sadly nothing firm on the SDK. Correct.
• New iWork/iLife: Obviously still too soon. Latest versions are 2008 anyway. Maybe next year. Correct.

The Maybe

• The Beatles on iTunes: If not now then certainly soon (perhaps an iTunes/iPhone media event in February for the iPhone SDK). Not yet.
• iPhone Third Party Developer Demo: I’m thinking they’ll demo with Sling or Google (Gears or Docs perhaps?) if anything. (Note this is different than SDK details.) Didn’t happen.

Overall, a pretty good batting average.

I’m inclined to believe that the shots are of a prototype keyboard as discussed by Erik Barzeski and DF. I will say that it looks fantastic and I would love to have one even in it’s current unperfected state. I recently ordered myself a USB (full-size) keyboard of laptop style keys and, though I’ve yet to use it, my experience using a MacBook has converted me to prefer well made scissor keys over the plunger keys found on most keyboards.

In any case it will be interesting to see how the final keyboard revision turns out. This might be the first Apple peripheral that I have to pick up…

Something like this could really be the decisive victory in the format war (once you realize that iPod owners are generally on the cutting edge of most electronics) and, assuming the other issues with copy protection are worked out, I’d be completely behind Blu-Ray (whereas now I’m undecided). It should be an interesting battle over the next few years.

Update (4/24/06): Though I did note it this morning when I was checking out the 17-inch MacBook, I didn’t mention the third USB port on this new model. After thinking about it (and having a friend note it to me), I realized this is noteworthy. All previous models of PowerBook G4 & MacBook have only had two USB ports, so this is a very welcome addition which brings the 17-inch model in line with the Intel mini & iMac and is highly appropriate for its role as a desktop replacement machine. Really, this highlights one of the large inadequacies of the 15-inch model (which is severly lacking in ports). I mean, how can 2 USB ports be enough for anyone now days (especially since iPods now only work over USB)?

Also, I wonder if Apple will update Boot Camp with drivers for this machine when it starts shipping out next week. There’s no mention of anything that would suggest that they’ll need to and it uses nearly the same hardware to the 15-inch model so I’m guessing no, but it will be interesting to see.

Update 2 (still 4/24/06): ThinkSecret points out that if you custom order the 15-inch MacBook Pro 2.0 GHz model and then bump it up to a 2.16 GHz processor it costs the same ($2799) as the 17-inch model. This is a little disturbing considering how much more you get on the bigger model: larger, higher-resolution screen, 120 GB hard drive (versus 100 GB in the 15-inch), and all the extra ports mentioned above. On the other hand you also get all the extra size and weight so I’m sure it’s a worthwhile trade off for some. It just makes me wonder if Apple will be dropping the price/bumping the specs of the 15-inch model soon (especially in light of the rumored Core Duo price drops).

1. iPod Boombox: These little things are cash cows and Apple wants a piece of the pie, but I would expect some differences from the ones already on the market.
2. Intel Mac mini: Probably with a Core Single (perhaps a Duo on the high end) and including Front Row functionality. I’m hoping for even more multimedia options like DVR and iPod docking but I’m not holding my breath since these features would increase the cost beyond Apple’s low target price point. It’s possible we’ll see a Mac mini A/V or something as a higher end option at some point, but again I don’t expect this.
3. More iPod accessories like the FM Tuner Remote and Socks: again, this kind of stuff is a cash cow for Apple.

Apple has announced it will hold a special event Tuesday, February 28 to show off some ‘fun new products’. [...] Solid information on what Apple may unveil at the event has escaped sources, but reasonable speculation suggests the debut of further Intel-based Macs or a new video iPod.

“Goody Gumdrops.”

Anyway, ThinkSecret released a scoop on the next version of the Mac mini that Apple is supposedly set to release at the MacWorld Expo in January. It was ThinkSecret that nailed the introduction of the first mini a year ago, so, despite the fact that the specs they list are almost too drool-worthy, they come from a fairly reputable source.

• Front Row 2.0
• PVR Functionally
• iPod Dock
• 3.5″ Drive
• Intel Processor

Check out the report for mote details: Road to Expo: Reborn Mac mini set to take over the living room.

I gotta say, if Apple manages to drop one of these for lest than $700 or so I’ll be hard pressed to keep my credit card in my pants and it probably wouldn’t be the only thing struggling to get out.

This, more than any rumors I’ve read, has convinced me that the first ICBMs are due to launch sooner that the originally expected timeframe of Summer 2006. I’ve finally come to terms with the transition and I’m looking forward to both the chaos and wonder.

This one is a bit more low key than “One More Thing?” though, so I wonder if Steve will be attending. Hmm?

As far as announcements, I would say that updated PowerMacs are a lock. New PowerBooks are likely as well (though there seems to be manufacturing problems with them). I’ve also heard speculation about FinalCut enhancements or a new photo related application as the event is scheduled during the preview for the PhotoPlus Expo though I’m not sure I agree with this opinion.

By the way, does anyone have an invitation they won’t be using? I’d be happy to cover the event for any news-media free of charge.

I’ll be a little disappointed if the maximum iPod capacity is not changed for two reasons. First of all, I’m averaging adding about 20GB of music to my library every two years while I’m currently nearly filled up my 40GB iPod solely with music. So this means I would have a 60GB full in another 2 years. This may not be a huge deal (just get a new iPod then right?) until you take the second my second concert into account. The more important issue here for me and everyone else is that video takes a heck of a lot more space than audio. In fact, my movies album in my iPhoto library currently is about 10GB for 311 items (mostly trailers and music videos). This doesn’t include any full length movies, which can easily be around 700MB when ripped and heavily compressed from a DVD. Considering this, I think I could easily fill up a 60GB iPod with compressed videos alone. My point here is that, while very few people, including myself, have more that 60GB of music; lots of people have more than 60GB of videos and music in their digital collection.

Since I last posted, ThinkSecret has released a new article claiming that Apple will debut “two new iPods, each available in two colors” at the event. The colors are expected to be similar to the iPod nano: black and white. This is a slight amendment to their previous stance, which was that Apple would not deliver a video iPod at the event but instead use it to launch new PowerBooks and PowerMacs.

Meanwhile, AppleInsider has posted quotes from several analysts stating that they expect a video iPod to be released at the event. They also mention the likelihood of new PowerMac and PowerBook models.

AppleInsider also mentions the possible introduction of a Madonna branded iPod in pink, while ThinkSecret mentions this but says it is unconfirmed. Neither site provides details about the technical specifications of the new Macs.

My take is that, as mentioned in my earlier post, the event will usher in both new PowerMacs, PowerBooks, and hard-drive based iPods. However, I’m leaning towards ThinkSecret’s opinion in that I doubt the iPods will have full fledged video capabilities. In fact, it seems more likely that they will share the form factor with the current generation of iPods, leaving the only differences in price and/or storage size. The general consensus from both sites is that the current models will stay at current prices of $299 & $399 but see their storage bumped from 20GB & 60GB to 40GB & 80GB thanks to new perpendicular recording mechanisms. This sounds just right for to me. Apple loves their current pricing scheme because it places an iPod every $50 or so. This makes it tempting for those who need more space or want additional features to spend more, as well as making sure that some type of iPod is available for a variety of different budgets.

AppleInsider’s report, which was published first, simply makes the claim that Apple has a 5th generation iPod with video capabilities in production and will be introducing it soon. They don’t specifically claim it will be introduced at the event next Tuesday Wednesday and they don’t make any claims about the introduction of updated PowerBooks & PowerMacs.

ThinkSecret on, the other hand, goes on the record to expressly state:

The event… will not usher in the much rumored video iPod but rather new PowerBook and PowerMac systems.

Furthermore, they argue that Apple won’t be introducing an updated regular iPod to avoid diverting attetion from the iPod nano as their main holiday item.

So while there is a bit of difference in the proposed expectations, it would seem that AppleInsider is covered even if no new iPods emerge Tuesday Wednesday. However they do state:

Apple Computer has begun production of a new version of its iPod digital music player.

Which would indicate that the new iPod is due to be released sometime before the real holiday shopping season starts in November. It wouldn’t make much sense for Apple to be producing them now if they weren’t planning to sell them until next year.

My take on the situation is that both AppleInsider and ThinkSecret are correct to some degree. First, let me point out that betting against ThinkSecret is a loosing proposition, they have an alarmingly high accuracy rate. However, this is not to say they don’t make mistakes from time to time (see iPod mini stripes). Additionally, updated PowerBook & PowerMac lineups are sorely needed and a bit overdue, so ThinkSecret is probably right that the event will usher in those bumps.

The problem that I see with this proposition is that it seems a bit minor to send out press invitations if you’re just going to bump the specs of your pro machine lineup. It hardly seems fitting to market this kind of announcement as Steve’s favorite “One more thing…” because a speed bump is something that usually just results in a press release (or nothing at all in the case of the recent Mac mini bump). Even if the new machines have dual core processors, which seems likely, at least for the PowerMac, it would still seem that it would result in the impact of “One more thing…” being a bit devalued. Additionally, it’s out of scale with events of this nature in the past which Apple has used to introduce the original iMac, the first iPod, and, more recently last year, the iPod photo and iPod U2 Special Edition.

Right now Apple’s trump card is the iPod (and to a lesser extent iTunes), whether you like it or not (I’m still on the fence). Running with the idea that the announcement is iPod related; Apple’s recently introduced nano and iTunes 5, leave only the the shuffle or the regular iPod left for an update. While the shuffle can no longer be considered new in light of the nano, it doesn’t really have a lot of room to go. Apple can’t bump it’s size or add a screen without running into nano territory. This leaves price drops, which, while feasible, are again hardly “One more thing…” scale. So this leaves the regular iPod. An update here, especially one that added video capabilities, would certainly be “One more thing…” worthy. Furthermore, the regular iPod (a.k.a. iPod photo or iPod with color screen) is due for an update as it hasn’t seen any updates (only price drops) since it was introduced as iPod photo was introduced for the holiday shopping season last year.

All of this leads me to believe that an updated iPod is indeed Steve’s “One more thing…” that will be unveiled next week. Ideally, Steve will unveil updated PowerBooks and PowerMacs to warm the crowd up and drop the iPod for the “One more thing…”.

The other possibility, which I would consider an outside chance, is the introduction of an entirely new device that is music and/or movie related. The movie angle is important because, with all certainty, Apple aims to spool their dominance in the music market into a similar position in the movie market. The only real question here is a when, not an if. The invitation to the event next Tuesday Wednesday also lends credence to the movie angle as it has a red curtain background. AppleInsider proposed an “AirPort Express-like product” that is capable outputting video to an external display. The catch here is that such a device would likely be paired with a video iPod so it’s unlikely we’ll see this without a video iPod. Nevertheless, I’m leaving the left field angle open. Apple has surprised in the past despite the best efforts of ThinkSecret and AppleInsider and they could do it again.

*Sigh* It’s so long until next Tuesday Wednesday.

Update: I mistakenly reported the event was on Tuesday, when it is, in fact, on Wednesday, October 12th.